India likely to get average monsoon rains in 2022

 

• Forecast raises prospects of higher farm and general growth in India.
• Rains are expected to be 99% of the long-term average this year.
• Nearly half of India's farmland gets no irrigation and is dependent on annual rains.

MUMBAI: India's monsoon rains are expected to be normal this year, according to the state-run weather agency, raising the chance of higher farm and general growth in Asia's third-largest economy.

The rains, which generally hit Kerala's southern point around June 1 and disappear by September, are predicted to be 99 percent of the long-term average this year, according to the India Meteorological Department.

For the four-month season beginning in June, New Delhi defines typical, or normal, rainfall as falling between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches).

"The hopeful estimate of a normal monsoon in 2022, combined with robust reservoir levels in all regions, bodes well for an early commencement of summer crop sowing," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, Moody's' Indian branch.

The monsoon is critical for the $2.7 trillion economy since it provides over 75% of the rain required for agriculture, as well as refilling reservoirs and aquifers.

Nearly half of India's cropland receives no irrigation and is completely reliant on the yearly rains that fall between June and September. Farming contributes for about 15% of the GDP, yet it feeds more than half of the world's 1.3 billion people.

The IMD predicts normal to above-average seasonal rainfall in key cotton, soybean, and sugarcane growing regions in northern peninsular India, central India, the Himalayan foothills, and some northwestern areas.

Rainfall could be below normal in tea, rubber, and rice-growing regions in northeast India and the southern peninsula, according to the report.

India is the world's largest producer of cotton and pulses, as well as second in sugar, wheat, and rice production. It also imports the most edible oils, such as palm and soy, in the world.

In the coming season, a regular monsoon will help India sustain rice exports while reducing edible oil imports, according to a Mumbai-based dealer with a multinational trading firm.